June 2019: June CarrierLists/Michigan State University FTL Contract Forecast

July 9, 2019

Here is the June CarrierLists/Michigan State University FTL Contract Forecast. The solid black line in the center is the base case contract rate forecast for the remainder of 2019 based on Michigan State University's proprietary model.  
 

  Sources: Producer Price Index Long Distance Truckload Price Index.  

This seems very reasonable based on the latest round of investment banking research reports that dropped last week. UBS and KeyBanc both downgraded the trucking sector, based partially on expectations for flat contract rates as well. 

Expect more financial research houses to follow suit in the coming weeks.  


Next, we have the June edition of the CarrierLists/Michigan State University Spot Rate Analysis. What is interesting here is that we see the market has (finally) returned to equilibrium after the spot market rates shot upward in late-2017 through mid-2018. This indeed suggests that things will level off, as this is what has historically happened. 

 

Sources: Producer Price Index Long Distance Truckload Price Index and Truckstop.com spot rates

For more info on the CarrierLists/Michigan State University FTL Contract Price Forecast or Spot Rate Analysis please contact either: 

 

Jason Miller, PhD
Assistant Professor of Logistics
Department of Supply Chain Management
Eli Broad College of Business
Michigan State University 
mill2831@broad.msu.edu 

Kevin Hill
President, CarrierLists

Director of Research, FreightWaves
646-731-4735
khill@carrierlists.com

 

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